Well Election 2011 is over and we now are just waiting for the final nitty gritties to be sorted out and final results to be announced.
The special votes are to be counted and in some electorates it could be the difference between who gets in or who gets shafted.
In Waitakere, Carmel Sepuloni is trailling Paula Bennet by a matter of 300+ plus votes but with around 3000 special votes to be counted so anything could happen. In Christchurch Central, where there is a dead heat, the specials will definitely prove the difference between National taking an electorate of Labour or not. There is also speculation from some commentators that the Greens could pick up another list seat from the specials - taking one off National - which is interesting enough for its own blog.
Other surprises are how much Rino Tirikatene defeated Rahui Katene by - I honestly thought Rahui would hold, or narrowly lose. However, she will be missed, and Rino will have to work hard to satisfy the electorates choice for change. I am also surprised at how close Shane Jones got to Pita Sharples. While the overall result was never in doubt, Shane Jones became close enough to now call the seat marginal - with Pita retiring at the next election it will interesting to see how well his Tamaki Makaurau replacement does. What surprises me most is how Shane Jones never actually took the fight to Pita - at times he looked disinterested in the campaign, or politics for that matter.
New Zealand first got a lot more party vote than anyone gave them credit of achieving - I predicted they would fall short 4.9% - but they managed to get to 6.8% meaning 8 MPs. Greens also were a surprise - they got lower than what I expected - I thought 12-15% they only got 10.8% - still a record for them and the first time the third party has cracked the 10% since NZ First in 1996. I'm still hoping they can somehow pick up the 14 seat to get Mojo Mathers in - she would be our first Deaf MP.
All in all, the overall election went as predictable with a few small surprises here and there - but let's hope the MPs from all parties operate in the best of interest of the people of New Zealand.
Sunday, 27 November 2011
Friday, 18 November 2011
Te Tai Tokerau and Hauraki Waikato
Well whanau, we are 6 down 1 to go.
This week we saw a dour then expected Te Tai Tokerau candidates debate. All three were all quite civil and almost felt lovey-dovey at some points. It surely must have something to do with how MTS presents the show and asks for respect from everyone in the hall not just candidates. Julian Wilcox also doesn't tend to ask politically heavy questions like 'Hone, you've just heard Waihoroi, what is your response?' or 'Mana said they will do this, Kelvin, will Labour agree with that?' -Julian gave each candidate the chance to answer the question put to them by the people from the floor. At one stage though Hone did get a bit stroppy with the way a question was put - rightly so - and it was effective.
One thing is for certain, whoever does win TTT will ensure TTT is well represented in Wellington for the next three years - and despite what Yvonne Tahana says here, I personally don't think it will be neck and neck this time around. Sure Kelvin slashed Hone's majority at the by-election, but there was also a large drop in voters from the 2008 general election. PREDICTION: Hone to win with 10-15% majority. Kelvin to come second with Waihoroi to poll about 18-21%. But as Willie Jackson said on Marae Investigates last week - Waihorois' main task is not to win, but it's to ensure Hone loses - that said watch for some pretty hard hitting comments in the next week, if the bloody Tea Party saga loses momentum that is.
The Native Affairs wagon hitched into Ngaruawahia on Wednesday for the Hauraki-Waikato candidates to have their go at television campaigning. This was probably the most vocal crowd of the debates to date which is surprising as it seemed to me to be the second most boring electorate behind Te Tai Hauauru in terms of result speculation. The candidates were again well mannered with the exception of Angeline Greensill reminding Nanaia Mahuta and the viewers that Labour were responsible for the first round of asset sales in the 1980s, and Bruce Mataki suggesting Greensill still thinks she is in the Maori Party after announcing similar policies to theirs. Nanaia argurably had the best line of the night likening the Maori Party to being Nationals Trojan Horse was effective and may have nailed Bruce Matakis' Hauraki Waikato coffin shut.
PREDICTION: Nanaia to hold the seat yet again - her majority is to big and she is too popular. Angeline to come runner up yet again. Bruce Mataki to limp to double digits.
As for the Minor parties leaders debate on Wednesday, I have yet to see it but from most accounts Hone surprised many (may have even won it according to some pundits), Winston is back (just what parliament needs, and the government doesn't). Don Brash was ineffective and will struggle to get 1% let alone the 15% he promised when he steamrolled Rodney Hide. (With the Tea party saga dragging on it might just keep Banks out as well meaning ACT will not be in parliament come Nov. 27).
Heoi ano whanau, one more debate to go: Tamaki Makaurau on Monday night we will see Pita Sharples, Shane Jones and Kereama (Kelly) Pene (and maybe Mikaere Curtis of the Greens - not sure though) go head to head. Shane Jones needs to go all out and go in no holds barred if he wants any chance of taking Pita Sharples out - watch out for Kereama Pene too. I heard him on Radio Waatea a few weeks back and he sure sounds like he knows what he wants and what he believes - could be dark horse in this one.
This week we saw a dour then expected Te Tai Tokerau candidates debate. All three were all quite civil and almost felt lovey-dovey at some points. It surely must have something to do with how MTS presents the show and asks for respect from everyone in the hall not just candidates. Julian Wilcox also doesn't tend to ask politically heavy questions like 'Hone, you've just heard Waihoroi, what is your response?' or 'Mana said they will do this, Kelvin, will Labour agree with that?' -Julian gave each candidate the chance to answer the question put to them by the people from the floor. At one stage though Hone did get a bit stroppy with the way a question was put - rightly so - and it was effective.
One thing is for certain, whoever does win TTT will ensure TTT is well represented in Wellington for the next three years - and despite what Yvonne Tahana says here, I personally don't think it will be neck and neck this time around. Sure Kelvin slashed Hone's majority at the by-election, but there was also a large drop in voters from the 2008 general election. PREDICTION: Hone to win with 10-15% majority. Kelvin to come second with Waihoroi to poll about 18-21%. But as Willie Jackson said on Marae Investigates last week - Waihorois' main task is not to win, but it's to ensure Hone loses - that said watch for some pretty hard hitting comments in the next week, if the bloody Tea Party saga loses momentum that is.
The Native Affairs wagon hitched into Ngaruawahia on Wednesday for the Hauraki-Waikato candidates to have their go at television campaigning. This was probably the most vocal crowd of the debates to date which is surprising as it seemed to me to be the second most boring electorate behind Te Tai Hauauru in terms of result speculation. The candidates were again well mannered with the exception of Angeline Greensill reminding Nanaia Mahuta and the viewers that Labour were responsible for the first round of asset sales in the 1980s, and Bruce Mataki suggesting Greensill still thinks she is in the Maori Party after announcing similar policies to theirs. Nanaia argurably had the best line of the night likening the Maori Party to being Nationals Trojan Horse was effective and may have nailed Bruce Matakis' Hauraki Waikato coffin shut.
PREDICTION: Nanaia to hold the seat yet again - her majority is to big and she is too popular. Angeline to come runner up yet again. Bruce Mataki to limp to double digits.
As for the Minor parties leaders debate on Wednesday, I have yet to see it but from most accounts Hone surprised many (may have even won it according to some pundits), Winston is back (just what parliament needs, and the government doesn't). Don Brash was ineffective and will struggle to get 1% let alone the 15% he promised when he steamrolled Rodney Hide. (With the Tea party saga dragging on it might just keep Banks out as well meaning ACT will not be in parliament come Nov. 27).
Heoi ano whanau, one more debate to go: Tamaki Makaurau on Monday night we will see Pita Sharples, Shane Jones and Kereama (Kelly) Pene (and maybe Mikaere Curtis of the Greens - not sure though) go head to head. Shane Jones needs to go all out and go in no holds barred if he wants any chance of taking Pita Sharples out - watch out for Kereama Pene too. I heard him on Radio Waatea a few weeks back and he sure sounds like he knows what he wants and what he believes - could be dark horse in this one.
Monday, 14 November 2011
Election Update
Kia Ora ano, sorry for the delay - been busy doing things that have taken me away from the computer and internet for most of the week.
Anyway - my reflections on the Native Affairs debates this week:
Waiariki was exactly how I thought it would go - personal, catty, scrappy and Louis Te Kani playing a bit part role. I feel sorry for Te Ururoa Flavell - I had seen him earlier that day at Parihaka at Te Kauhoe Wano's Tangi - and talking to various people Te Ururoa had been at the Pa until 2-4am that morning before heading back to New Plymouth only to be back at the tangi at 8-30am on the Monday and then driving to Rotorua in time for the debate - he looked pooped on TV and it showed - but credit to the man he fronted up and performed brilliantly. Annette performed okay - got a bit at too personal at times and played dirty politics in my opinion while offering not much in terms of policies - if she did they were lost in the muck-raking. Nevertheless she related well to the Mana supporters and may have picked up some more votes on the way - credit to her. Louis Te Kani done okay for someone reasonably new to the public spotlight and related party policy well as well as also clearly defining where he stands on local issues such as new roads through Rotorua - I thought Julian Wilcox was a bit harsh on him though - asking him and him only to state that if he failed to achieve certain goals would he resign as Waiariki MP if elected. PREDICTION: Te Ururoa Flavell to hold by a slim margin - He articulates well and appeared cool-headed under pressure during the debate. Annette's could tip him up IF her supporters are enrolled and can get out to vote.
The Ikaroa-Rawhiti debate was held on the Wednesday in Gisborne - three awesome Ngati Porou men went head to head and delivered a good debate. Current MP Parekura Horomia for Labour, Maori candidate Na Raihania and Tawhai McCluthchie for Mana. The three articulated well what they would do for the electorate - mainly in Gisborne and further up the coast - they weren't really pressed on issues further afield such as the Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa leading me to wonder what their commitments to those areas are. However, Na Raihania impressed in this debate as being a confident speaker and spoke to party policy well - to me he won this debate. Tawhai impressed as well, however he didn't seem to land any killer blows that gave me any confidence on his ability as an MP. PREDICTION: Parekura to be returned once again for a last hurrah - he has a good and loyal following on the Coast - that will be eroded for sure - but he also is held in high regard in other parts of the electorate and has a reputation for being heavily (excuse the pun) involved in local matters (marae openings, birthdays, meetings etc.) Look for Na Raihania to push him though and possibly pick up the seat in 2014.
Again, this post is a bit behind the schedule, but I'll try and catch up this week starting with Te Tai Tokerau debate tonight 8.30pm Native Affairs Maori TV.
Anyway - my reflections on the Native Affairs debates this week:
Waiariki was exactly how I thought it would go - personal, catty, scrappy and Louis Te Kani playing a bit part role. I feel sorry for Te Ururoa Flavell - I had seen him earlier that day at Parihaka at Te Kauhoe Wano's Tangi - and talking to various people Te Ururoa had been at the Pa until 2-4am that morning before heading back to New Plymouth only to be back at the tangi at 8-30am on the Monday and then driving to Rotorua in time for the debate - he looked pooped on TV and it showed - but credit to the man he fronted up and performed brilliantly. Annette performed okay - got a bit at too personal at times and played dirty politics in my opinion while offering not much in terms of policies - if she did they were lost in the muck-raking. Nevertheless she related well to the Mana supporters and may have picked up some more votes on the way - credit to her. Louis Te Kani done okay for someone reasonably new to the public spotlight and related party policy well as well as also clearly defining where he stands on local issues such as new roads through Rotorua - I thought Julian Wilcox was a bit harsh on him though - asking him and him only to state that if he failed to achieve certain goals would he resign as Waiariki MP if elected. PREDICTION: Te Ururoa Flavell to hold by a slim margin - He articulates well and appeared cool-headed under pressure during the debate. Annette's could tip him up IF her supporters are enrolled and can get out to vote.
The Ikaroa-Rawhiti debate was held on the Wednesday in Gisborne - three awesome Ngati Porou men went head to head and delivered a good debate. Current MP Parekura Horomia for Labour, Maori candidate Na Raihania and Tawhai McCluthchie for Mana. The three articulated well what they would do for the electorate - mainly in Gisborne and further up the coast - they weren't really pressed on issues further afield such as the Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa leading me to wonder what their commitments to those areas are. However, Na Raihania impressed in this debate as being a confident speaker and spoke to party policy well - to me he won this debate. Tawhai impressed as well, however he didn't seem to land any killer blows that gave me any confidence on his ability as an MP. PREDICTION: Parekura to be returned once again for a last hurrah - he has a good and loyal following on the Coast - that will be eroded for sure - but he also is held in high regard in other parts of the electorate and has a reputation for being heavily (excuse the pun) involved in local matters (marae openings, birthdays, meetings etc.) Look for Na Raihania to push him though and possibly pick up the seat in 2014.
Again, this post is a bit behind the schedule, but I'll try and catch up this week starting with Te Tai Tokerau debate tonight 8.30pm Native Affairs Maori TV.
Thursday, 3 November 2011
Early election comments
So far we are a week and a half into the election campaign and yet only 2 and a half weeks away from casting day. That means that we are in for a sudden quickening of pace in the next 5 days to a week.
Monday night saw the first major leaders debate between John Key and Phil Goff. Feel free to make your own opinions of the result but for me Phil won simply because he performed better than anyone gave him credited for being able to. John Key seemed blase and assuming that he just had to turn up, smile and walk to election night victory.
Before this debate however TVNZs Marae investigates held a Te Tai Tokerau candidates debate on Sunday between Maori Party's Waihoroi Shortland, Mana Party leader Hone Harawira and Labour's Kelvin Davis. In my opinion this resulted simply ended up with personal attacks leveled at each other - 2 on 1 more to the point. Hone v Kelvin/Waihoroi. PREDICTION: The Mana - Maori fight is going to become ugly and bitter. voters to become confused, disenfranchised and Kelvin could sneak this seat if Labour get in behind him and put a big focus on him. They want the Maori seats back enough that ths could be a possibility.
Maori TV have also had a couple of debates so far - one good, the other dour and lacklusture.
Maori TV have also had a couple of debates so far - one good, the other dour and lacklusture.
Te Tai Tonga on Monday night unearthed a surprising talent in Mana's Clinton Dearlove. He showed he knows his stuff and what Mana Party wants; said what he believes and most importantly sounded like he believed it. Maori Party MP Rahui Katene on the other hand just kept repeating what Maori Party have achieved whilst in government and didn't sound to convincing while Labours Rino Tirikatene seemed unsure that he actually wanted the seat, speaking more of Labour's policies as opposed to speaking personally - seeking party vote perhaps. Greens 'candidate' Dora Langsbury done a good job explaining she was not seeking personal victory only party votes. PREDICTION: Rahui to sneak it back from Labour - just. It will come down to how much Clinton takes away from her. Labour voters are loyal and will vote for Rino who will also pick up the Green vote as well, the Greens will solidify their leftist leanings and vote for Labour candidates.
Te Tai Hauauru is predictable, Tariana will win hands down. Labours Soraya Peke-Mason was to be her nearest rival but stumbled badly at the end when admitting she was unsure of party policies. Mana's Fred Timutimu seemed to be completely out of his depth, refusing to answer questions on party policy instead telling Julian Wilcox to ask Sue Bradford and then talking about Patupaiarehe when asked about treaty claims. Young Green candidate, 18 year old Jack McDonald impressed with his confidence and knowledge despite his youth and will be someone to watch out for, but is again only seeking the party vote. PREDICTION: Tariana with ease, she is fanatically popular in the electorate, however don't be surprised if Labour take a huge chunk of the party vote from Maori Party, and also McDonalds performance might just get Greens a bit more popularity in Taranaki who have a strong Maori environmentalist following.
I will also post whakaaro as each debate is carried out. Native Affairs will be doing at least five more - one each in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Waiariki, Waikato-Hauraki, Tamaki Makaurau and Te Tai Tokerau. There is at least another two Leaders debates scheduled on Mainstream media as well.
Te Tai Hauauru is predictable, Tariana will win hands down. Labours Soraya Peke-Mason was to be her nearest rival but stumbled badly at the end when admitting she was unsure of party policies. Mana's Fred Timutimu seemed to be completely out of his depth, refusing to answer questions on party policy instead telling Julian Wilcox to ask Sue Bradford and then talking about Patupaiarehe when asked about treaty claims. Young Green candidate, 18 year old Jack McDonald impressed with his confidence and knowledge despite his youth and will be someone to watch out for, but is again only seeking the party vote. PREDICTION: Tariana with ease, she is fanatically popular in the electorate, however don't be surprised if Labour take a huge chunk of the party vote from Maori Party, and also McDonalds performance might just get Greens a bit more popularity in Taranaki who have a strong Maori environmentalist following.
I will also post whakaaro as each debate is carried out. Native Affairs will be doing at least five more - one each in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Waiariki, Waikato-Hauraki, Tamaki Makaurau and Te Tai Tokerau. There is at least another two Leaders debates scheduled on Mainstream media as well.
Friday, 2 September 2011
Rugby World Cup
In about 7 days and 8 hours time, we will finally be watching some World Cup Rugby. Seems we have heard, seen, read nothing but it lately. Every journalist all of a sudden is an expert selector, commands a deep knowledge of the game and is therefore able to say that so and so will play in the final, or what tactics will get there. Most political decisions over the last 4 years have been in relation to RWC and the IRB and sponsors.
I was over the RWC in 2009 when it became obvious that all our lives will be controlled during this period so that our politicians and the NZRU can look good in front of the world. But as we get closer and I see the hype building amongst the general public I'm starting to get excited by it.
I was over the RWC in 2009 when it became obvious that all our lives will be controlled during this period so that our politicians and the NZRU can look good in front of the world. But as we get closer and I see the hype building amongst the general public I'm starting to get excited by it.
I've been out to the Auckland Airport the last two days meeting people from Wellington who are here for Huinga Tauira, and seeing buses arriving and leaving has got me thinking which team is on that bus etc. Hanging around Mangere where the Huinga Tauira is, it seems that every second car has at least one (sometimes 3) Tongan flag(s) flying from there cars. Every third car has a Samoan flag. I even saw one that had a Togan and a Samoan flag. Anyway, as soon as I find me a little Russian flag that's me.
It goes without saying that should the ABs lose NZ will be depressed and it will be left up to the Kiwis to win the 4 nations for us to feel better again. But win or lose I am really looking forward to seeing the games played and especially the minnows like Namibia, Russia, Japan and Australia will be worth a watch, they know they don't really have a chance so they just going to go have fun.
Wednesday, 10 August 2011
"Drunk Maori"
I came across this article on the 3news website and am confused by where I stand on this.
On the one hand I can understand and argue for the benefits of having Maori wardens look after the health benefits of Maori by reducing the alcohol risk of drinking in pubs. I believe that most Maori people will respond more positively to a Maori Warden than they would a Cop (Maori or not), and this can only be good right?
On the other hand, I can't understand why the police or the Wellington council should feel the need to take this stance when there are other laws that Pubs and Clubs should be following to prevent anyone getting drunk, violent and disorderly in their establishments. (Sale of Liquor Act). Why do they feel the need to single out the Maori people for this special attention just because there is a law that allows it even though it hasn't been used in years, if at all. Are they expecting only Maori people to be drinking during in pubs and clubs during RWC? Do they feel that they will be inundated with drunken disorderly Non-Maori that they need help from Maori Wardens to look after the Maori?
If this was an initiative by the Maori Wardens with support from Maori organisations (Runanga, iwi health providers etc.) to help change Maori attitude towards drinking then I would have a clearer opinion. But because this is a suggestion by the council and the police, I can't help but feel that this is another form of institutional rascism, (conscious or not I'm not so sure) given that there are already laws that put the onus on bar-owners to remove drunk persons and to serve responsibly.
On the one hand I can understand and argue for the benefits of having Maori wardens look after the health benefits of Maori by reducing the alcohol risk of drinking in pubs. I believe that most Maori people will respond more positively to a Maori Warden than they would a Cop (Maori or not), and this can only be good right?
On the other hand, I can't understand why the police or the Wellington council should feel the need to take this stance when there are other laws that Pubs and Clubs should be following to prevent anyone getting drunk, violent and disorderly in their establishments. (Sale of Liquor Act). Why do they feel the need to single out the Maori people for this special attention just because there is a law that allows it even though it hasn't been used in years, if at all. Are they expecting only Maori people to be drinking during in pubs and clubs during RWC? Do they feel that they will be inundated with drunken disorderly Non-Maori that they need help from Maori Wardens to look after the Maori?
If this was an initiative by the Maori Wardens with support from Maori organisations (Runanga, iwi health providers etc.) to help change Maori attitude towards drinking then I would have a clearer opinion. But because this is a suggestion by the council and the police, I can't help but feel that this is another form of institutional rascism, (conscious or not I'm not so sure) given that there are already laws that put the onus on bar-owners to remove drunk persons and to serve responsibly.
Tuesday, 9 August 2011
A new experience
I am just starting out in this world of blogging, and am not so sure what I want to talk about.
Not a great start I guess, but I will eventually think of something. I do have some ideas in mind. I am passionate about sport, mainly rugby, league and cricket. I am just as passionate about politics, especially New Zealand and more specifically how Maori are involved and treated in politics. I am also interested in discussing how Maori are perceived by themselves, and by others in society, and also discussing how Maori perceive society in New Zealand.
Between Sport, Politics and Maori related issues I can be highly opinionated, not always thinking my arguments thoroughly before expressing them. I do tend to take an opposing stance to an opinion in the attempt to bring an understanding to others about why things happened, or why people said what they said, even if I don't personally believe that position.
I guess more often than not, my blogs will be based around sport or politics, and if I really feel like mixing it up, I might even blog about Politcs IN Sports, but don't be surprised if every now and then I throw something else in completely from leftfield.
I look forward to this journey and hope that you can join me on the way
Naku iti nei,
EagleWarrior
Not a great start I guess, but I will eventually think of something. I do have some ideas in mind. I am passionate about sport, mainly rugby, league and cricket. I am just as passionate about politics, especially New Zealand and more specifically how Maori are involved and treated in politics. I am also interested in discussing how Maori are perceived by themselves, and by others in society, and also discussing how Maori perceive society in New Zealand.
Between Sport, Politics and Maori related issues I can be highly opinionated, not always thinking my arguments thoroughly before expressing them. I do tend to take an opposing stance to an opinion in the attempt to bring an understanding to others about why things happened, or why people said what they said, even if I don't personally believe that position.
I guess more often than not, my blogs will be based around sport or politics, and if I really feel like mixing it up, I might even blog about Politcs IN Sports, but don't be surprised if every now and then I throw something else in completely from leftfield.
I look forward to this journey and hope that you can join me on the way
Naku iti nei,
EagleWarrior
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