Well whanau, we are 6 down 1 to go.
This week we saw a dour then expected Te Tai Tokerau candidates debate. All three were all quite civil and almost felt lovey-dovey at some points. It surely must have something to do with how MTS presents the show and asks for respect from everyone in the hall not just candidates. Julian Wilcox also doesn't tend to ask politically heavy questions like 'Hone, you've just heard Waihoroi, what is your response?' or 'Mana said they will do this, Kelvin, will Labour agree with that?' -Julian gave each candidate the chance to answer the question put to them by the people from the floor. At one stage though Hone did get a bit stroppy with the way a question was put - rightly so - and it was effective.
One thing is for certain, whoever does win TTT will ensure TTT is well represented in Wellington for the next three years - and despite what Yvonne Tahana says here, I personally don't think it will be neck and neck this time around. Sure Kelvin slashed Hone's majority at the by-election, but there was also a large drop in voters from the 2008 general election. PREDICTION: Hone to win with 10-15% majority. Kelvin to come second with Waihoroi to poll about 18-21%. But as Willie Jackson said on Marae Investigates last week - Waihorois' main task is not to win, but it's to ensure Hone loses - that said watch for some pretty hard hitting comments in the next week, if the bloody Tea Party saga loses momentum that is.
The Native Affairs wagon hitched into Ngaruawahia on Wednesday for the Hauraki-Waikato candidates to have their go at television campaigning. This was probably the most vocal crowd of the debates to date which is surprising as it seemed to me to be the second most boring electorate behind Te Tai Hauauru in terms of result speculation. The candidates were again well mannered with the exception of Angeline Greensill reminding Nanaia Mahuta and the viewers that Labour were responsible for the first round of asset sales in the 1980s, and Bruce Mataki suggesting Greensill still thinks she is in the Maori Party after announcing similar policies to theirs. Nanaia argurably had the best line of the night likening the Maori Party to being Nationals Trojan Horse was effective and may have nailed Bruce Matakis' Hauraki Waikato coffin shut.
PREDICTION: Nanaia to hold the seat yet again - her majority is to big and she is too popular. Angeline to come runner up yet again. Bruce Mataki to limp to double digits.
As for the Minor parties leaders debate on Wednesday, I have yet to see it but from most accounts Hone surprised many (may have even won it according to some pundits), Winston is back (just what parliament needs, and the government doesn't). Don Brash was ineffective and will struggle to get 1% let alone the 15% he promised when he steamrolled Rodney Hide. (With the Tea party saga dragging on it might just keep Banks out as well meaning ACT will not be in parliament come Nov. 27).
Heoi ano whanau, one more debate to go: Tamaki Makaurau on Monday night we will see Pita Sharples, Shane Jones and Kereama (Kelly) Pene (and maybe Mikaere Curtis of the Greens - not sure though) go head to head. Shane Jones needs to go all out and go in no holds barred if he wants any chance of taking Pita Sharples out - watch out for Kereama Pene too. I heard him on Radio Waatea a few weeks back and he sure sounds like he knows what he wants and what he believes - could be dark horse in this one.
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