Early election comments

So far we are a week and a half into the election campaign and yet only 2 and a half weeks away from casting day. That means that we are in for a sudden quickening of pace in the next 5 days to a week. 

Monday night saw the first major leaders debate between John Key and Phil Goff. Feel free to make your own opinions of the result but for me Phil won simply because he performed better than anyone gave him credited for being able to. John Key seemed blase and assuming that he just had to turn up, smile and walk to election night victory.

Before this debate however TVNZs Marae investigates held a Te Tai Tokerau candidates debate on Sunday between Maori Party's Waihoroi Shortland, Mana Party leader Hone Harawira and Labour's Kelvin Davis. In my opinion this resulted simply ended up with personal attacks leveled at each other - 2 on 1 more to the point. Hone v Kelvin/Waihoroi. PREDICTION: The Mana - Maori fight is going to become ugly and bitter. voters to become confused, disenfranchised and Kelvin could sneak this seat if Labour get in behind him and put a big focus on him. They want the Maori seats back enough that ths could be a possibility.

Maori TV have also had a couple of debates so far - one good, the other dour and lacklusture.

Te Tai Tonga on Monday night unearthed a surprising talent in Mana's Clinton Dearlove. He showed he knows his stuff and what Mana Party wants; said what he believes and most importantly sounded like he believed it. Maori Party MP Rahui Katene on the other hand just kept repeating what Maori Party have achieved whilst in government and didn't sound to convincing while Labours Rino Tirikatene seemed unsure that he actually wanted the seat, speaking more of Labour's policies as opposed to speaking personally - seeking party vote perhaps. Greens 'candidate' Dora Langsbury done a good job explaining she was not seeking personal victory only party votes. PREDICTION: Rahui to sneak it back from Labour - just. It will come down to how much Clinton takes away from her. Labour voters are loyal and will vote for Rino who will also pick up the Green vote as well, the Greens will solidify their leftist leanings and vote for Labour candidates.

Te Tai Hauauru is predictable, Tariana will win hands down. Labours Soraya Peke-Mason was to be her nearest rival but stumbled badly at the end when admitting she was unsure of party policies. Mana's Fred Timutimu seemed to be completely out of his depth, refusing to answer questions on party policy instead telling Julian Wilcox to ask Sue Bradford and then talking about Patupaiarehe when asked about treaty claims. Young Green candidate, 18 year old Jack McDonald impressed with his confidence and knowledge despite his youth and will be someone to watch out for, but is again only seeking the party vote. PREDICTION: Tariana with ease, she is fanatically popular in the electorate, however don't be surprised if Labour take a huge chunk of the party vote from Maori Party, and also McDonalds performance might just get Greens a bit more popularity in Taranaki who have a strong Maori environmentalist following.

I will also post whakaaro as each debate is carried out. Native Affairs will be doing at least five more - one each in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Waiariki, Waikato-Hauraki, Tamaki Makaurau and Te Tai Tokerau. There is at least another two Leaders debates scheduled on Mainstream media as well.